Ripple Open the forecast

Where waves come from

The waves you'll surf this weekend are already out there. A storm you'll never see made them days ago, maybe on the other side of an ocean. This page follows them from the storm to your beach.

Day 0since a storm south of New Zealand
swell reaches Malibu on day 8

It starts with wind

Wind dragging over water makes ripples. The ripples give the wind something to push on, so they grow. Blow harder, or for longer, and you get bigger waves that are longer from crest to crest. They also need room. The stretch of sea the wind blows over is called the fetch, and once the waves reach the end of it they stop growing. That's why a gale on a lake makes nasty chop but never a long swell, however long it blows.

Calmno wind
0.3 mevery 10 s
Press Blow, or drag across the sea
Try a real wind, or pick your own and press Blow. Drag across the water to point it. The clock runs 4 hours a second, and the chart shows what this wind builds hour by hour: a strong wind needs a day or more to raise a big sea, and on a short fetch the curves go flat early, because the waves have run out of room. When it stops, watch the short, choppy waves die while the long ones keep running.

Those heights are the sea out where the wind blows, not surf. Forecasters size up a sea by the average of its biggest third of waves, and in a big storm that can be as tall as a three-storey building. The wind here also blows perfectly steadily, which real winds never quite do, so real seas tend to come out a little smaller.

Only part of that sea reaches your beach as swell. On the way it shrinks in three ways. It spreads out over a wider and wider stretch of ocean. Its periods string out, so only a slice of the storm's waves goes past at any one time. And the short waves die off. The swell that's left keeps roughly the storm's period, but after crossing an ocean it's usually a third to half the storm's height, and less from a small storm. You can try it in the ocean scene below.

A real storm blows like this for a day or two over a patch of ocean the size of France. What it leaves is a mess: waves of every size, running every which way, piling into each other.

Then the sea sorts itself out

Long waves travel faster than short ones. So once the waves leave the storm, they spread out: the longest race ahead, the short ones fall behind, and the shortest just die. A few days out, the mess has turned into neat lines of waves that are all about the same size. That's a swell.

Day 0since the storm began
–at your beach
Tap the sea to move your beach. Near the storm it's chaos; far away only one kind of wave goes past at a time. The charts log what reaches your beach. First come long waves, too small to notice. Then the swell builds to its peak as the period drops, and it fades away in shorter waves. Move your beach farther out and the whole thing stretches.

Surfers who watch buoys know this pattern. A new swell shows up as a few long, slow waves, 18 or 20 seconds apart, often hardly any height at all. Over the next day the period drops and the waves fill in. The farther away the storm, the longer that takes.

Across an ocean

Swell goes a very long way. Out in deep water it loses surprisingly little, and a 15-second swell covers about 1,000 km a day. In 1963 the oceanographer Walter Munk and his team followed swells from storms in the Southern Ocean all the way up the Pacific to Alaska, more than 10,000 km.

A storm doesn't send swell equally all round, though. Most of it goes the way the wind blows, in a fan, so a beach off to one side gets a smaller swell, or none.

Day 0storm
    Pick a beach, then tap anywhere at sea to set off a storm. Aim it, make it stronger, let it blow longer or over more sea, and the chart shows what reaches the beach. Drag sideways to spin the globe. Land gets in the way, so islands and headlands leave swell shadows behind them.

    This is why a beach only gets swell from some directions: it needs open water between it and the storm. It's also why some spots wake up only in winter, when the storms are in the right place, and why a south swell in California can come from a storm south of New Zealand a week and a half earlier: storms down there mostly blow towards the east and north-east, aiming their swell up the Pacific.

    Why waves come in sets

    Sit on the beach and you'll see the waves don't come evenly: a few big ones, then a lull. That's because a swell is never one clean period. It's a bundle of close ones, say 12, 12.5 and 13 seconds, that drift in and out of step. When they line up, their waves add up into a set. When they fall out of step, they cancel out and you get the lull. Two swells are the simplest version of that, so here are two.

    A set every 2 min 36 sabout 6 good waves, then a lull
    Drag the periods closer together. The top two lines are each swell on its own; the bottom one is what you'd see, the two added together. Where their crests line up you get a set, and where they cancel out you get a lull. The closer the periods, the longer the sets and the lulls. Shrink the second swell to nothing and the sets go away. Time runs eight times faster here.

    So "every seventh wave" isn't a rule. How many waves come in a set depends on how close the periods are, and it changes from one swell to the next.

    What's at your beach right now

    Every swell at your beach left a storm somewhere. Here are the ones there right now, each with the line it came in on. Pick a spot, use where you are, or tap the globe.

    Hossegorswells arriving now
      Each line runs back out to sea the way that swell is coming from. The storm that made it was somewhere along it. The direction is in the forecast, but the distance isn't, so the line stops where the open water does.

      Ripple shows every swell coming to your spot for the next 16 days, from every wave model side by side.

      Open Hossegor in Ripple

      Want to go further? Swell period, explained shows why a smaller swell with a longer period is often the bigger day.